While headlines swirl with speculation and emotion, those of us who run businesses know the real work happens between cycles. The economy doesn’t pause. Customers still need delivery. Teams still need leadership. And capital still needs to be put to work wisely.
As the dust settles, new policy directions will emerge, and with that, both risk and opportunity. What matters most now isn’t which party won—it’s what entrepreneurs, operators, and capital providers do next.
Macro Signals Worth Watching
At CapitalPSA, we lean heavily on data—not drama. We believe leading indicators and business cycles tell us more than daily headlines. Here are a few trends on our radar:
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Commercial real estate delinquency is climbing. Office CMBS default rates have hit 9.4%, their highest level in over a decade. This echoes broader economic transitions, not a sudden collapse. For professional services firms leasing space or serving real estate portfolios, the landscape is shifting.
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The federal deficit continues to balloon. Despite a strong labor market, we’re seeing recession-level deficit spending. The dislocation between GDP growth and fiscal discipline is a growing concern. And eventually, debt costs will crowd out flexibility—for government and businesses alike.
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Tech remains a volatile anchor. While Bitcoin and the S&P are showing strength, fundamentals are more complex. Many in the “Magnificent 7” are under pressure from antitrust regulators, shifting tax incentives, and global competition. But the long arc of innovation remains bullish.
What we need now is clear thinking, bold leadership, and more capital efficiency. That’s true in Silicon Valley. And it’s true in the service-based economy, too.
For Professional Services Firms: Growth Is Possible—But Capital Discipline Is Crucial
The headlines above might feel far removed from your day-to-day as a consulting, engineering, IT, legal, or creative firm. But they’re not. They affect how banks lend, how clients pay, and how long you can wait on receivables before growth stalls.
Professional services teams are often stuck in the middle: high skill, high value—but low working capital. This is where most firms hit the ceiling.
That’s exactly why we built CapitalPSA—to deliver both financing and operational software designed for the realities of project-based work. Unlike generic factoring providers, we understand what it’s like to manage delivery, cash flow, and utilization all at once.
Tech, Trust, and Risk: What the NVIDIA-SMCI Saga Teaches Us
You’ve probably heard the chatter around NVIDIA and Super Micro Computer (SMCI). SMCI’s recent underperformance, tied to accounting concerns and delayed chip delivery from NVIDIA, has analysts on edge.
It reminds us of an old truth: when a major debtor falters, even the most dominant supplier can feel the ripple.
Years ago, during the collapse of Enron, we had a client fully concentrated on them. He insisted a $100B company wouldn’t fail. We pushed him to act. He did—and walked away paid in full, ahead of most others.
That experience shaped how we view capital risk today. In a world where reputation can change overnight, knowing your exposure is key.
Would we buy NIVIDIA today? Maybe. But we’d dig deep into their AR book first. That’s the kind of risk discipline we apply to every opportunity we underwrite.
The Role of Allies in Uncertain Times
Every economic cycle has its blind spots. That’s why we believe in having allies—people who help you see the risks you’d rather ignore, and the opportunities you might overlook.
As the All-In crew often reminds us, it’s not about winning the moment—it’s about playing the long game with the right cap table, the right team, and the right information.
At CapitalPSA, we want to be one of those allies.
We’re here for the builders who want to scale—without sacrificing control. For the operators who know growth is lumpy, but worth it. For the CFOs who need better tools and better options than just waiting 90 days for payment.
Let’s explore how we can help you unlock capital, streamline delivery, and move forward with clarity.
Until next time—stay curious, stay sharp, and stay in motion.
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