New Chapter, Same Journey

When the Past Rhymes: Preparing for the Next Chapter in an Uncertain Economy

As we step into 2025, the economic environment feels increasingly complex—and familiar. We’re seeing echoes of history in today’s data, but this is not 1929. It’s a different world, one filled with new tools, new models, and new possibilities.

Whether it’s government spending, rising consumer defaults, or instability in credit markets, today’s reality demands sharper strategies—not fear. If there’s anything we’ve learned from cycles past (and insights from our trusted sources , it’s that every challenge holds the seed of a new solution.

For professional services companies—those who deliver the thinking, building, coding, advising, and creative horsepower behind the economy—what matters now is how we adapt, how we manage capital, and who we surround ourselves with along the way.

Signals We Can’t Ignore

• Consumer debt stress is mounting.
  In the first nine months of 2024, U.S. credit card defaults hit $46 billion, up more than 50% year-over-year. Many households are drawing down savings just to cover essentials. The lower-income segment is particularly squeezed—just as inflation finally starts to cool.
• Manufacturing continues to contract.
  The Chicago PMI closed the year with its second-lowest reading since 2020, and new orders hit a five-year low. That’s 13 straight months of contraction—a signal that U.S. industrial momentum is softening beneath the surface.
• Auto and commercial credit cracks are growing.
  Auto loan delinquencies crossed 3.13%, and even car dealerships are defaulting on floor plan loans—short-term credit used to stock vehicle inventory. When businesses stop paying their lenders, it’s more than a consumer issue—it’s a liquidity issue.
• CRE risk is still looming.
  While less front-page than earlier in the year, the ripple effects of overvalued commercial property portfolios and lingering vacancy rates continue to show up quietly on banks’ balance sheets.

These indicators are not predictions of doom. They are guideposts. The All-In crew says it best—data doesn’t panic, people do. That’s why we stay grounded in numbers and long-term trends, not clickbait.

For Professional Services Firms: Resilience is Earned

While much of the media’s attention is on Wall Street and consumer markets, the middle of the economy—professional services—is often underreported but deeply affected.

As service-based businesses, we don’t typically carry inventory. Our product is people and knowledge. But that also means we live and die by cash flow, utilization, and collections. When receivables stretch past 60 or 90 days, growth grinds to a halt—no matter how good the pipeline looks.

That’s why capital discipline matters more than ever in 2025. For founders, consultants, agencies, and strategic service providers, the ability to finance your delivery, float receivables, and plan with confidence is now a superpower.

And it’s one we’re ready to offer.

Think Differently About Financing

We created CapitalPSA because we’ve been in your shoes. We know the stress of meeting payroll while waiting on net-90 invoices. We’ve experienced the frustration of banks that don’t understand our business model. And we’ve seen firsthand how traditional financing doesn’t work for most services-based companies.

Our solution? A technical and financial platform built for this moment.

CapitalPSA’s  delivers:

• Capital without dilution or personal guarantees
• Zero upfront investment
• Enterprise-grade Professional Services Automation software (by CapitalPSA) to manage delivery, forecasting, and performance

We’re not a lender that just cuts checks. We’re a long-term partner for firms that are serious about scaling with clarity and control.

History Isn’t Destiny—It’s a Compass

It’s easy to draw comparisons between now and 1929. But we’re not facing the same world, and we’re not the same people. We’re more informed. We’re better connected. And we have far more sophisticated tools at our fingertips.

What feels like going back may actually be a chance to move forward the right way. When old mistakes resurface, it’s not regression—it’s a lesson asking to be learned once and for all.

And in that moment, we evolve.

Whether you’re navigating recession fears, planning for growth, or simply trying to break the feast-or-famine cycle common to professional services, we’re here to walk with you.

Ready to talk? Let’s explore how CapitalPSA can support your next move.

If this newsletter helped you, pass it along to someone else building something great.

Until next time,
— The CapitalPSA Team